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Indian banks’ profitability is at an inflexion point and is likely to moderate in 2025-26, India Ratings said on Tuesday.
The rating agency said banks’ rapid improvement in financial metrics seen over financial years 2021 to 2024 is likely to have peaked and will see an inflexion point in 2024-25.
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“This rise in delinquencies appears to be driven by a combination of self-employed individuals, those with informal or semi-formal income sources, and younger populations,” it said.
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It observed an increase in delinquencies in specific segments, such as personal loans, credit cards, and microfinance, that will weigh on banks’ profits.
India Ratings expects banks’ loan growth to be in the range of 13-13.5% and deposit growth at 12-13% in 2025-26, amid high competition among lenders for garnering low-cost current account savings and account deposits.
Non-banking finance companies (NBFC) are also likely to see a slowdown in loan growth, and credit costs and margin pressure in 2025-26, it said.
“Profitability pressure (on NBFCs) could intensify due to the ongoing rise in the credit cost for the sector because of borrower over-leveraging and slowdown in credit growth,” it added.
Further, India Ratings highlighted that the banks’ credit growth has lost some steam, largely due to the base effect and the regulatory changes.
It has cut down the credit growth forecast for 2024-25 to around 13.5% from 15% earlier.
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